מאמרים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Nowcasting thunderstorms in the Mediterranean region using lightning data

Thunderstorms are often the cause of severe and disastrous flash floods. Lightning activity within these storms can be detected and monitored continuously from thousands of kilometers away and can therefore be very useful in improving forecasts and now-casts of severe thunderstorms. An improvement in the now-casting of such storms can assist in reducing damages and saving lives.Using the ZEUS ground-based VLF lightning detection network and the Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information (WDSS–II) software, we performed now-casting simulations using 1 year of lightning data over the Mediterranean area. Thousands of thunderstorms were observed and now-cast 30, 60, 90 and 120 min ahead. Statistical analysis was then done by calculating the hit, miss and false-alarm rates, as well as the POD, FAR and CSI scores in order to determine the success of the now-casting.The results show that the algorithm is overall successful in now-casting the location of the lightning clusters, especially when applied to strong and consistent lightning events (it is these events which also have the strongest connection to flash floods). The probability of detection (POD) values range between 0.46 for 30 minute now-casts and 0.25 for 120 minute now-casts. The critical success index (CSI) values are quite similar, but slightly lower. The now-casting has a low false-alarm rate, 0.03 for 30 minute now-casts, which is also beneficial for operational use.This method has been implemented for the use in real-time now-casting and is used in the EU FLASH project to seek and track areas of thunderstorm risk according to lightning intensity.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2010

Lightning and rain dynamic indices as predictors for flash floods events in the Mediterranean

The FLASH EU funded project aims to observe, analyze and model lightning activity in thunderstorms for use in short term forecasting of flash floods in the Mediterranean region. Two new indices, aimed to assess the potential for heavy precipitation and flash-floods, are proposed and eval-uated. The first is a lightning index – the MKI, which is a modified version of the KI-index. The applied index gives more weight to the lower-and mid-level relative humidity. The second is a new rain index, the RDI, which is the in-tegrated product of specific humidity and vertical velocity. With the aim to contribute to the aforementioned objectives, 3 flash flood events, two in Israel and one in Greece are ana-lyzed in the present study, using the 2 proposed indices. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database, of 2.5 • ×2.5 • res-olution, failed to resolve the meso-scale features of the ob-served flash flood events. Therefore, the ECWMF database, of 0.5 • ×0.5 • resolution, was used for calculating and dis-playing the two indices. Comparison between the observed rain and lightning and the respective indices for the two pieces of data was performed for the flash flood events. The results show good concordance of both indices with timing and spatial distribution in 2 of them, while in one of them is displaced by more than 50 km. The good agreement in locating the maximum between the MKI and RDI suggests that the proposed indices are good predictors for both in-tense lightning activity and torrential rain and consequently, for potential flash floods.
מידע נוסף

מאמרים ופרסומים אחרונים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Socioeconomic and data challenges: Disaster risk reduction in Europe - UNDRR - 2019

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) involves complex processes with different stakeholders at all administrative levels. Two elements in particular play a major role: the need to ensure stakeholders' interoperability through an efficient exchange of data, and the inclusion of socioeconomic factors which may influence DRR processes. This report aims at contributing to increase the global knowledge on these two elements, focusing on the related issues affecting DRR throughout the European continent.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

IPCC 2019 - Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

The 2019 Refinement to the 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories was adopted and accepted during the 49th Session of the IPCC in May 2019. It was prepared by the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI) in accordance with the decision taken at the 44th Session of IPCC in Bangkok, Thailand, in October 2016
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Climate Change and Land - Special Report - IPCC

An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

GAR 2019 - Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction - UNDRR

The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) is informed by the latest data – including Sendai Framework target reporting by countries using the Sendai Framework Monitor – and infers early lessons on the state of the global disaster risk landscape. While the observed period is still too short to reach definitive conclusions at a global scale, it is possible to ascertain certain patterns in terms of magnitude, geographic and socioeconomic distribution of impacts and abstract
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

WMO Statement on the state of the global climate in 2018

This publication marks the twenty-fifth anniversary of the WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate, which was first issued in 1994. The 2019 edition treating data for 2018 marks sustained international efforts dedicated to reporting on, analysing and understanding the year-to-year variations and long-term trends of a changing climate
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2018

Global Warming of 1.5 ºC - Special Report - IPCC

An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

Periodic Report Summary 1 - DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice)

The DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice) project proposes a novel framework to evaluate the economic consequences of climate change impacts and related policy responses.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

בחינת תרומת קבוצות סוציו אקונומיות בישראל לפליטות גזי חממה מצריכת מזון ביתי

לייצור המזון, במיוחד בחקלאות התעשייתית, נודעת השפעה ממשית על היקף פליטות גזי חממה באופן ישיר או עקיף. גזי חממה אלו נוצרים בכל שלבי מחזור החיים של המזון, החל משלב החקלאות ותשומותיו, דרך הייצור, הפצה, קירור, קמעונאות, הכנת המזון בבית וכלה בסילוק הפסולת.למעשה, בעוד שבמחקרים השונים קיימת הסכמה על כך שפליטות גזי חממה מייצור המזון וצריכתו מהוות חלק משמעותי מפליטות גזי החממה בעולם, המחלוקת המחקרית נסובה סביב הערכת היקף הפליטות. לדוגמא, לפי דוח של האו"ם מ- 2014 14.5% מפליטות גזי החממה כתוצאה מפעילו
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Explaining Extreme Weather Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective

The annual Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) special issue on the attribution of last year’s extreme weather events is published today. This year’s issue “explaining extreme events of 2013 – from a climate perspective” includes two papers led by researchers from our climateprediction. This is a highly-cited and influential annual publication coined in 2012 asking whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered the risk of major extreme weather events of the p
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Lima call for climate action- Decision

Climate Action & UNEP delivered their fifth annual Sustainable Innovation Forum on December 9 in Lima. This year’s event brought together close to 500 leaders from key United Nations bodies, governments, international & regional companies and leading non-governmental organisations (NGO's).
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

Climate Prediction for Adaptation: Who needs what?

The role of short- and long-term climate predictions in determining the success of adaptation to climate change is investigated. A simple theoretical model that captures the relationship between adaptive performance, decision structure, and prediction accuracy at different temporal scales is developed, and its implications deduced. It is shown that users who face high adjustment costs (i.e. are inflexible) depend more heavily on accurate long-term predictions than those who are able to adjust
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

UK climate change risk assessment: government report

The Government published the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) on 25 January 2012, the first assessment of its kind for the UK and the first in a 5 year cycle. It sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK under 5 key themes identified in the CCRA 2012 Evidence Report - Agriculture and Forestry; Business, industries and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Natural Environment and Buildings and Infrastructure - and describes the policy context, and action already in place to tackle
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

2011 Bonn Declaration of Mayors

This declaration is the outcome document of the Mayors Adaptation Forum, which forms the Mayors segment of the Resilient Cities 2011 congress. It highlights the need to build resilience to disasters as a critical issue. It also signals the need to take appropriate action to build local capacities in reducing risk to disasters including those exacerbated by climate change.
The declaration advocates for the implementation of the following: (i) mainstreaming new adaptation and resilience standard
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

A double-resolution transient RCM climate change

A double-resolution regional experiment on hydrodynamic simulation of climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region was performed using an International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste RegCM3 model. The RegCM3 was driven from the lateral boundaries by the data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate simulation performed at the MPI-M, Hamburg and based on the A1B IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emission. Two simulation runs for the time period 1960-2060, employing spatial resolutions
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Climate Change Adaptation and Real Option Evaluation: A Case Study in Campeche, Mexico

This report illustrates the application of a (relatively) new method to guide decision making under high (and unknowable) levels of uncertainty. The approach allows for the identification of robust policy options that are economically beneficial under different scenarios and varying levels uncertainty. Option value techniques are commonly employed in the finance literature to identify investment decisions that are resilient across a spectrum of outcomes. The methods are technically advanced
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

ipcc summary for policymakers

The Working Group III Special Report on Renewa
ble Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of th
e literature on the scientific, technological,
environmental, economic and social aspects of
the contribution of six renewable energy (RE)
sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is
intended to provide policy relevant information to
governments, intergovernmental processes and ot
her interested parties. This Summary for
Policymakers provides an ov
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2008

Climate change- vulnerability and adaptation indicators

The purpose of this Technical Paper is to rehearse some fundamental concepts surrounding the
development and delineation of adaptation indicators. It builds upon the outputs of an Expert meeting
on climate change vulnerability and adaptation indicators (Budapest, September 2008) and on the
contents of a Background Paper that was prepared for the meeting.
מידע נוסף
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