מומלץ לקרוא

אוסף מאמרים נבחרים

מאמרים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

GAR15 - Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

As the 2005-2015 lifespan of the Hyogo Framework for Action drew to a close, GAR15 questioned whether the way in which disaster risk governance had been approached during that period was really fit for purpose in a world threatened by catastrophic increases in disaster risk
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Nowcasting thunderstorms in the Mediterranean region using lightning data

Thunderstorms are often the cause of severe and disastrous flash floods. Lightning activity within these storms can be detected and monitored continuously from thousands of kilometers away and can therefore be very useful in improving forecasts and now-casts of severe thunderstorms. An improvement in the now-casting of such storms can assist in reducing damages and saving lives.Using the ZEUS ground-based VLF lightning detection network and the Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information (WDSS–II) software, we performed now-casting simulations using 1 year of lightning data over the Mediterranean area. Thousands of thunderstorms were observed and now-cast 30, 60, 90 and 120 min ahead. Statistical analysis was then done by calculating the hit, miss and false-alarm rates, as well as the POD, FAR and CSI scores in order to determine the success of the now-casting.The results show that the algorithm is overall successful in now-casting the location of the lightning clusters, especially when applied to strong and consistent lightning events (it is these events which also have the strongest connection to flash floods). The probability of detection (POD) values range between 0.46 for 30 minute now-casts and 0.25 for 120 minute now-casts. The critical success index (CSI) values are quite similar, but slightly lower. The now-casting has a low false-alarm rate, 0.03 for 30 minute now-casts, which is also beneficial for operational use.This method has been implemented for the use in real-time now-casting and is used in the EU FLASH project to seek and track areas of thunderstorm risk according to lightning intensity.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2010

Lightning and rain dynamic indices as predictors for flash floods events in the Mediterranean

The FLASH EU funded project aims to observe, analyze and model lightning activity in thunderstorms for use in short term forecasting of flash floods in the Mediterranean region. Two new indices, aimed to assess the potential for heavy precipitation and flash-floods, are proposed and eval-uated. The first is a lightning index – the MKI, which is a modified version of the KI-index. The applied index gives more weight to the lower-and mid-level relative humidity. The second is a new rain index, the RDI, which is the in-tegrated product of specific humidity and vertical velocity. With the aim to contribute to the aforementioned objectives, 3 flash flood events, two in Israel and one in Greece are ana-lyzed in the present study, using the 2 proposed indices. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database, of 2.5 • ×2.5 • res-olution, failed to resolve the meso-scale features of the ob-served flash flood events. Therefore, the ECWMF database, of 0.5 • ×0.5 • resolution, was used for calculating and dis-playing the two indices. Comparison between the observed rain and lightning and the respective indices for the two pieces of data was performed for the flash flood events. The results show good concordance of both indices with timing and spatial distribution in 2 of them, while in one of them is displaced by more than 50 km. The good agreement in locating the maximum between the MKI and RDI suggests that the proposed indices are good predictors for both in-tense lightning activity and torrential rain and consequently, for potential flash floods.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2010

Flash flood prediction using an uncalibrated hydrological model and radar rainfall data in a Mediterranean watershed under changing hydrological conditions

Flash floods cause some of the most severe natural disasters in Europe but Mediterranean areas are especially vulnerable. They can cause devastating damage to property, infrastructures and loss of human life. The complexity of flash flood generation processes and their dependency on different factors related to watershed properties and rainfall characteristics make flash flood prediction a difficult task. In this study, as part of the EU-FLASH project, we used an uncalibrated hydrological model to simulate flow events in a 27 km2 Mediterranean watershed in Israel to analyze and better understand the various factors influencing flows. The model is based on the well-known SCS curve number method for rainfall–runoff calculations and on the kinematic wave method for flow routing. Existing data available from maps, GIS and field studies were used to define model parameters, and no further calibration was conducted to obtain a better fit between computed and observed flow data. The model rainfall input was obtained from the high temporal and spatial resolution radar data adjusted to rain gauges. Twenty flow events that occurred within the study area over a 15 year period were analyzed. The model shows a generally good capability in predicting flash flood peak discharge in terms of their general level, classified as low, medium or high (all high level events were correctly predicted). It was found that the model mainly well predicts flash floods generated by intense, short-lived convective storm events while model performances for low and moderate flows generated by more widespread winter storms were quite poor. The degree of urban development was found to have a large impact on runoff amount and peak discharge, with higher sensitivity of moderate and low flow events relative to high flows. Flash flood generation was also found to be very sensitive to the temporal distribution of rain intensity within a specific storm event.
מידע נוסף

מאמרים ופרסומים אחרונים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Perspectives of climate change adaptation of building areas against heat waves

This paper makes a contribution to the 11th SDG "Sustainable Cities and Communities" with the target to improve the adaptation to climate change and resilience to disasters in terms of summer heat. It deals with the question of how adaptation measures can reduce the burden of summer heat on residents in their homes with the aim to decrease the disaster risk
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency

Scientists have a moral obligation to clearly warn humanity of any catastrophic threat and to “tell it like it is.” On the basis of this obligation and the graphical indicators presented below, we declare, with more than 11,000 scientist signatories from around the world, clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

GAR19 - Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

This fifth edition of the United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) is being issued four years after the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (Sendai Framework).
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

The 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories was adopted and accepted during the 49th Session of the IPCC in May 2019. It was prepared by the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI) in accordance with the decision taken at the 44th Session of IPCC in Bangkok, Thailand, in October 2016
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

2019 - IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report
highlights the urgency of prioritizing timely, ambitious and coordinated action to address
.unprecedented and enduring changes in the ocean and cryosphere
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Quantifying the impact of changing the threshold of New York City heat emergency plan in reducing heat-related illnesses

The adverse health impact of high heat is widely documented and can lead to a substantial public health burden. Although heat-related illness in western countries is largely preventable, extreme heat remains the main weather contributor to the burden of disease in the United States.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Peak energy, peak oil, and the rise of renewables: An executive’s guide to the global energy system

In this episode of the McKinsey Podcast, Simon London speaks with senior partners Namit Sharma and Christer Tryggestad about their research in the Global Energy Perspective 2019 and
.where global energy demand is headed in the decades to come
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

UN 2019 sixth Global Environment Outlook: GEO-6 - Summary for Policymakers

UN Environment’s sixth Global Environment Outlook (2019) calls on decision makers to take immediate action to address pressing environmental issues to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals as well as other Internationally Agreed Environment Goals, such as the Paris Agreement. GEO-6 builds on the findings of previous GEO reports, including the six regional assessments (2016), and outlines the current state of the environment, illustrates possible future environmental trends and analyses the
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

The case for strategic and managed climate retreat

Faced with global warming, rising sea levels, and the climate-related extremes they intensify, the question is no longer whether some communities will retreat—moving people and assets out of harm's way—but why, where, when, and how they will retreat.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Accelerating Climate Action

This report builds on the OECD Well-being Framework and applies a new perspective that analyses synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation and broader goals such as health, education, jobs, as well as wider environmental quality and the resources needed to sustain our livelihoods through time
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Tracking global climate change adaptation among governments

The Paris Agreement and Katowice Climate Package articulate a clear mandate for all parties to undertake and document adaptation progress. Yet persistent challenges have prevented substantive developments in tracking adaptation and the assessment of adaptation actions and their outcomes
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience - 2019

This report focuses on making the case for climate adaptation, providing specific insights
and recommendations in key sectors: food security, the natural environment, water, cities and
urban areas, infrastructure, disaster risk management, and finance. It is designed to inspire
.action among decision-makers
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

The Global Climate in 2015–2019


Compared to the previous five-year assessment period 2011–2015, the current five-year period 2015–2019 has seen a continued increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
and an accelerated increase in the atmospheric concentration of major greenhouse
gases (GHGs), with growth rates nearly 20% higher.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

The Global Risks Report 2019

The Global Risks Report 2019 is published against a backdrop of worrying geopolitical and geo-economic tensions. If unresolved, these tensions will hinder the world’s ability to deal with a growing range of collective challenges, from the mounting evidence of environmental degradation to the increasing disruptions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Tracking the progress of climate change adaptation: An Australian case study

The last decade has seen strong global growth in the number of climate change adaptation projects. To understand whether adaptation is progressing and is successful, some form of longitudinal tracking is required. The six adaptation conferences organised by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility between 2010 and 2018 provide a unique and novel opportunity to track adaptation progress in Australia.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

A Land Without Water

Climate change, waves of refugees and poor planning are draining water supplies
in Jordan
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Transformative adaptation to climate change for sustainable social-ecological systems

In the face of major shifts in temperature and precipitation, some conventional strategies that help people to cope or incrementally adapt to climate change may become inappropriate in the long-term. Transformative adaptation, i.e. fundamental systems’ changes that address root causes of vulnerability may be needed. However, we have a limited understanding of what transformative adaptation looks like in social-ecological systems and when it can be implemented
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Managing global catastrophic risks - Part 1 - Understand

Sponsored by the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER), this report is dedicated to providing options for policy-makers to better understand, mitigate, prepare for, respond to and communicate about global catastrophic risks
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

How does gendered vulnerability shape the adoption and impact of sustainable livelihood interventions in an era of global climate change?

Though many studies have long considered the broad social implications of climate change, researchers have only recently started to consider the gendered unevenness of the global landscape of vulnerability, exposure, and adaptive capacity to environmental stressors and shocks. Historically, policies and interventions addressing natural resource-based livelihoods have rarely considered underlying gender dynamics despite the global pervasiveness of gendered disparities in both economic opportuniti
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018

This publication marks the twenty-fifth anniversary of the WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate, which was first issued in 1994
The 2019 edition treating data for 2018 marks sustained international efforts dedicated to reporting on, analysing and understanding the year-to-year variations and long-term trends of a changing climate
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

WMO Statement on the state of the global climate in 2018

This publication marks the twenty-fifth anniversary of the WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate, which was first issued in 1994. The 2019 edition treating data for 2018 marks sustained international efforts dedicated to reporting on, analysing and understanding the year-to-year variations and long-term trends of a changing climate
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Increased frequency of and population exposure to extreme heat index days in the United States during the 21st century

The National Weather Service of the United States uses the heat index—a combined measure of temperature and relative humidity—to define risk thresholds warranting the issuance of public heat alerts. We use statistically downscaled climate models to project the frequency of and population exposure to days exceeding these thresholds in the contiguous US for the 21st century with two emissions and three population change scenarios
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Agrivoltaics provide mutual benefits across the food–energy–water nexus in drylands

The vulnerabilities of our food, energy and water systems to projected climatic change make building resilience in renewable energy and food production a fundamental challenge. We investigate a novel approach to solve this problem by creating a hybrid of colocated agriculture and solar photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2018

A roadmap to effective urban climate change adaptation

This paper outlines a roadmap to effective urban climate change adaptation built from our practical understanding of the evidence and effects of climate change and the preparation of climate change adaptation strategies and plans. This roadmap aims to drive research in achieving fruitful knowledge and solution-based achievable recommendations in adapting to climate change in urban areas with effective and systematic manner
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2017

WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate 2017

The global mean temperature in 2017 was approximately 1.1 °C above the preindustrial
era, more than half way towards the maximum limit of temperature increase
of 2 °C sought through the Paris Agreement, which further strives to limit the increase to
C 1.5 ° above pre-industrial levels
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2017

The Adaptation Gap Report

The 2017 Adaptation Gap Report, which is the third global Adaptation Gap Report by UN Environment – prepared in collaboration with the Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation – focuses on one of the key questions arising in the wake
of the global goal: What are the ways forward to assess progress towards the global goal on
adaptation?
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2017

Advancing climate adaptation practices and solutions: Emerging research priorities


This paper builds on insights from Adaptation Futures 2016: Practices and Solutions – the largest
gathering of adaptation experts to date – to identify research priorities at a time when adaptation
is scaling up and moving from planning to implementation around the world. It traces the
evolution of adaptation research over time, reflects on how it has evolved, maps what it looks
like today, anticipates research directions and gaps, and articulates new research priorities

מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

Periodic Report Summary 1 - DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice)

The DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice) project proposes a novel framework to evaluate the economic consequences of climate change impacts and related policy responses.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

בחינת תרומת קבוצות סוציו אקונומיות בישראל לפליטות גזי חממה מצריכת מזון ביתי

לייצור המזון, במיוחד בחקלאות התעשייתית, נודעת השפעה ממשית על היקף פליטות גזי חממה באופן ישיר או עקיף. גזי חממה אלו נוצרים בכל שלבי מחזור החיים של המזון, החל משלב החקלאות ותשומותיו, דרך הייצור, הפצה, קירור, קמעונאות, הכנת המזון בבית וכלה בסילוק הפסולת.למעשה, בעוד שבמחקרים השונים קיימת הסכמה על כך שפליטות גזי חממה מייצור המזון וצריכתו מהוות חלק משמעותי מפליטות גזי החממה בעולם, המחלוקת המחקרית נסובה סביב הערכת היקף הפליטות. לדוגמא, לפי דוח של האו"ם מ- 2014 14.5% מפליטות גזי החממה כתוצאה מפעילו
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Explaining Extreme Weather Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective

The annual Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) special issue on the attribution of last year’s extreme weather events is published today. This year’s issue “explaining extreme events of 2013 – from a climate perspective” includes two papers led by researchers from our climateprediction. This is a highly-cited and influential annual publication coined in 2012 asking whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered the risk of major extreme weather events of the p
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Lima call for climate action- Decision

Climate Action & UNEP delivered their fifth annual Sustainable Innovation Forum on December 9 in Lima. This year’s event brought together close to 500 leaders from key United Nations bodies, governments, international & regional companies and leading non-governmental organisations (NGO's).
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

Climate Prediction for Adaptation: Who needs what?

The role of short- and long-term climate predictions in determining the success of adaptation to climate change is investigated. A simple theoretical model that captures the relationship between adaptive performance, decision structure, and prediction accuracy at different temporal scales is developed, and its implications deduced. It is shown that users who face high adjustment costs (i.e. are inflexible) depend more heavily on accurate long-term predictions than those who are able to adjust
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

UK climate change risk assessment: government report

The Government published the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) on 25 January 2012, the first assessment of its kind for the UK and the first in a 5 year cycle. It sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK under 5 key themes identified in the CCRA 2012 Evidence Report - Agriculture and Forestry; Business, industries and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Natural Environment and Buildings and Infrastructure - and describes the policy context, and action already in place to tackle
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

2011 Bonn Declaration of Mayors

This declaration is the outcome document of the Mayors Adaptation Forum, which forms the Mayors segment of the Resilient Cities 2011 congress. It highlights the need to build resilience to disasters as a critical issue. It also signals the need to take appropriate action to build local capacities in reducing risk to disasters including those exacerbated by climate change.
The declaration advocates for the implementation of the following: (i) mainstreaming new adaptation and resilience standard
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

A double-resolution transient RCM climate change

A double-resolution regional experiment on hydrodynamic simulation of climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region was performed using an International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste RegCM3 model. The RegCM3 was driven from the lateral boundaries by the data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate simulation performed at the MPI-M, Hamburg and based on the A1B IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emission. Two simulation runs for the time period 1960-2060, employing spatial resolutions
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Climate Change Adaptation and Real Option Evaluation: A Case Study in Campeche, Mexico

This report illustrates the application of a (relatively) new method to guide decision making under high (and unknowable) levels of uncertainty. The approach allows for the identification of robust policy options that are economically beneficial under different scenarios and varying levels uncertainty. Option value techniques are commonly employed in the finance literature to identify investment decisions that are resilient across a spectrum of outcomes. The methods are technically advanced
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

ipcc summary for policymakers

The Working Group III Special Report on Renewa
ble Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of th
e literature on the scientific, technological,
environmental, economic and social aspects of
the contribution of six renewable energy (RE)
sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is
intended to provide policy relevant information to
governments, intergovernmental processes and ot
her interested parties. This Summary for
Policymakers provides an ov
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2008

Climate change- vulnerability and adaptation indicators

The purpose of this Technical Paper is to rehearse some fundamental concepts surrounding the
development and delineation of adaptation indicators. It builds upon the outputs of an Expert meeting
on climate change vulnerability and adaptation indicators (Budapest, September 2008) and on the
contents of a Background Paper that was prepared for the meeting.
מידע נוסף
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