מאמרים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2013

On Welfare Frameworks and Catastrophic Climate Risks

Recent theoretical work in the economics of climate change has suggested that climate policy is highly sensitive to ‘fat-tailed’ risks of catastrophic outcomes (Weitzman, 2009) [68]. Such risks are suggested to be an inevitable consequence of scientific uncertainty about the effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on climate. Criticisms of this controversial result fall into three categories: The first suggests that it may be irrelevant to cost benefit analysis of climate policy, the second challenges the fat-tails assumption, and the third questions the behavior of the utility function assumed in the result. This paper analyses these critiques and suggests that those in the first two categories have formal validity, but that they apply only to the restricted setup of the original result, which may be extended to address their concerns. They are thus ultimately unconvincing. Critiques in the third category are shown to be robust however they open up new ethical and empirical challenges for climate economics that have thus far been neglected—how should we ‘value’ catastrophes as a society? I demonstrate that applying results from social choice to this problem can lead to counterintuitive results, in which society values catastrophes as infinitely bad, even though each individual's utility function is bounded. Finally, I suggest that the welfare functions traditionally used in climate economics are ill-equipped to deal with climate catastrophes in which population size changes. Drawing on recent work in population ethics I propose an alternative welfare framework with normatively desirable properties, which has the effect of dampening the contribution of catastrophes to welfare.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

Climate Prediction for Adaptation: Who needs what?

The role of short- and long-term climate predictions in determining the success of adaptation to climate change is investigated. A simple theoretical model that captures the relationship between adaptive performance, decision structure, and prediction accuracy at different temporal scales is developed, and its implications deduced. It is shown that users who face high adjustment costs (i.e. are inflexible) depend more heavily on accurate long-term predictions than those who are able to adjust
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Ethics and the Economist: What Climate Change Demands of Us

Climate change is changing not only our physical world, but also our intellectual, social, and moral worlds. We are realizing that our situation is profoundly unsafe, interdependent, and uncertain. What, then, does climate change demand of us, as human beings and as economists? A discipline of economics based on Enlightenment notions of mechanism and disembodied rationality is not suited to present problems. This essay suggests three major requirements: first, that we take action; second, that we work together; and third, that we focus on avoiding the worst, rather than obtaining the optimal. The essay concludes with suggestions of specific steps that economists can take as researchers, teachers, and in our other roles.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2008

Calculating potential evaporation from climate model data: A source of uncertainty for hydrological climate change impacts

Evaporation is an important part of the water balance of a catchment, and estimates of potential evaporation (PE) are an important input to hydrological models. When modelling the hydrological impacts of climate change, using data from climate models, present models generally do not provide direct estimates of PE from the land surface. Estimates thus have to be calculated from other climate variables, and many existing formulae can be applied. This paper compares the well-established, more physically-based but data-intensive, Penman-Monteith PE against a simple, temperature-based (T-based) PE, when calculated from readily-available monthly climate model data over Britain (for five global and eight regional climate models). The performance of the two PE formulations is compared to MORECS PE (a gridded dataset derived by the UK Met Office from weather observations, using a modified Penman-Monteith formulation) for the baseline period 1961-1990, and the changes in the two PE estimates between the 1970s and the 2080s are compared. The results show that the T-based PE matches MORECS PE better than does Penman-Monteith PE, for all the climate models studied. However, the changes in the two types of PE between the 1970s and 2080s are different, for each of the climate models, and these affect the modelled hydrological impacts. This is illustrated using three example catchments spread across Britain. The uncertainty introduced by the PE formulation is less than that due to the climate model, but could still be important for some applications.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2007

Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England

Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East of England, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services’ 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis (a ‘one-at-a-time’ experiment) of the various elements of the modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty in those elements. Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response (from general circulation models and dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services’ WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because ‘one-at-a-time’ experiments do not sample the combination of different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures, and whether such certainty can be delivered.
מידע נוסף

מאמרים ופרסומים אחרונים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

Periodic Report Summary 1 - DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice)

The DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice) project proposes a novel framework to evaluate the economic consequences of climate change impacts and related policy responses.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

בחינת תרומת קבוצות סוציו אקונומיות בישראל לפליטות גזי חממה מצריכת מזון ביתי

לייצור המזון, במיוחד בחקלאות התעשייתית, נודעת השפעה ממשית על היקף פליטות גזי חממה באופן ישיר או עקיף. גזי חממה אלו נוצרים בכל שלבי מחזור החיים של המזון, החל משלב החקלאות ותשומותיו, דרך הייצור, הפצה, קירור, קמעונאות, הכנת המזון בבית וכלה בסילוק הפסולת.למעשה, בעוד שבמחקרים השונים קיימת הסכמה על כך שפליטות גזי חממה מייצור המזון וצריכתו מהוות חלק משמעותי מפליטות גזי החממה בעולם, המחלוקת המחקרית נסובה סביב הערכת היקף הפליטות. לדוגמא, לפי דוח של האו"ם מ- 2014 14.5% מפליטות גזי החממה כתוצאה מפעילו
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Explaining Extreme Weather Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective

The annual Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) special issue on the attribution of last year’s extreme weather events is published today. This year’s issue “explaining extreme events of 2013 – from a climate perspective” includes two papers led by researchers from our climateprediction. This is a highly-cited and influential annual publication coined in 2012 asking whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered the risk of major extreme weather events of the p
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Lima call for climate action- Decision

Climate Action & UNEP delivered their fifth annual Sustainable Innovation Forum on December 9 in Lima. This year’s event brought together close to 500 leaders from key United Nations bodies, governments, international & regional companies and leading non-governmental organisations (NGO's).
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

Climate Prediction for Adaptation: Who needs what?

The role of short- and long-term climate predictions in determining the success of adaptation to climate change is investigated. A simple theoretical model that captures the relationship between adaptive performance, decision structure, and prediction accuracy at different temporal scales is developed, and its implications deduced. It is shown that users who face high adjustment costs (i.e. are inflexible) depend more heavily on accurate long-term predictions than those who are able to adjust
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

UK climate change risk assessment: government report

The Government published the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) on 25 January 2012, the first assessment of its kind for the UK and the first in a 5 year cycle. It sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK under 5 key themes identified in the CCRA 2012 Evidence Report - Agriculture and Forestry; Business, industries and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Natural Environment and Buildings and Infrastructure - and describes the policy context, and action already in place to tackle
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

2011 Bonn Declaration of Mayors

This declaration is the outcome document of the Mayors Adaptation Forum, which forms the Mayors segment of the Resilient Cities 2011 congress. It highlights the need to build resilience to disasters as a critical issue. It also signals the need to take appropriate action to build local capacities in reducing risk to disasters including those exacerbated by climate change.
The declaration advocates for the implementation of the following: (i) mainstreaming new adaptation and resilience standard
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

A double-resolution transient RCM climate change

A double-resolution regional experiment on hydrodynamic simulation of climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region was performed using an International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste RegCM3 model. The RegCM3 was driven from the lateral boundaries by the data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate simulation performed at the MPI-M, Hamburg and based on the A1B IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emission. Two simulation runs for the time period 1960-2060, employing spatial resolutions
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Climate Change Adaptation and Real Option Evaluation: A Case Study in Campeche, Mexico

This report illustrates the application of a (relatively) new method to guide decision making under high (and unknowable) levels of uncertainty. The approach allows for the identification of robust policy options that are economically beneficial under different scenarios and varying levels uncertainty. Option value techniques are commonly employed in the finance literature to identify investment decisions that are resilient across a spectrum of outcomes. The methods are technically advanced
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

ipcc summary for policymakers

The Working Group III Special Report on Renewa
ble Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of th
e literature on the scientific, technological,
environmental, economic and social aspects of
the contribution of six renewable energy (RE)
sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is
intended to provide policy relevant information to
governments, intergovernmental processes and ot
her interested parties. This Summary for
Policymakers provides an ov
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2008

Climate change- vulnerability and adaptation indicators

The purpose of this Technical Paper is to rehearse some fundamental concepts surrounding the
development and delineation of adaptation indicators. It builds upon the outputs of an Expert meeting
on climate change vulnerability and adaptation indicators (Budapest, September 2008) and on the
contents of a Background Paper that was prepared for the meeting.
מידע נוסף
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