מאמרים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2016

Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance1. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations2. We develop a new metric, the veg
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems-and the goods and services they provide-for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario-consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C-is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability- IPCC Working Group II Contribution to AR5

This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) again forms the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with the environmental and social consequences of climate change, including students and researchers across the natural and social sciences, professionals in medicine and law, and practitioners in environmental planning, resource management, development, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation. It provides relevant material for decision makers and stakeholders at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector worldwide. This assessment provides information on: • Impacts of climate changes that have already occurred and risks of future impacts; • Vulnerabilities and interactions that make some climate events devastating, while others pass with little notice; • Risks of climate change impacts for the health and security of people and ecosystems; • Risks of climate change impacts for human activities; • Prospects for adaptation, including opportunities, barriers, and financing; • Broad dimensions of a climate change “solution-space”.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Israel: an expert assessment approach

The Mediterranean region is both a global biodiversity hot spot and one of the biomes most strongly affected by human activities. Ecologists and land managers are increasingly required to advise on threats to biodiversity under foreseeable climate change. We used expert surveys to evaluate current understanding and uncertainties regarding climate change impacts on biodiversity in terrestrial, inland freshwater, and marine ecosystems of Israel. Finally, we propose a response strategy toward minim
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

To know what we cannot know: Global mapping of minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitation

Fresh water resources, human societies, and ecosystems are expected to be strongly impacted by climate change, with precipitation trends being one of the most important elements that will be closely monitored. However, the natural variability of precipitation data can often mask existing trends such that the results appear as statistically insignificant. Information on the limitations of trend detection is important for risk assessment and for decision making related to adaption strategies under inherent uncertainties. This paper reports on an effort to quantify and map minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitation data series on a global scale. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to generate realizations of trended precipitation data for different precipitation means and coefficients of variance, and the Mann–Kendall method was applied for detecting the trend significance. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) VASClimO data was used to compute the mean and coefficient of variance of annual precipitation over land and to map minimal detectable absolute trends. It was found that relatively high magnitude trends (positive or negative) have a low chance of being detected as a result of high natural variance of the precipitation data. The largest undetectable trends were found for the tropics. Arid and semiarid regions also present high relative values in terms of percent change from the mean annual precipitation. Although the present analysis is based on several simplified assumptions, the goal was to point out an inherent problem of potentially undetectable high absolute trends that must be considered in analyzing precipitation data series and assessing risks in adaption strategies to climate change.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2010

Water use by Tabor and Kermes oaks growing in their respective habitats in the Lower Galilee region of Israel

We estimated water use by the two main oak species of the Lower Galilee region of Israel—Tabor (Quercus ithaburensis) and Kermes (Quercus calliprinos)—to develop management options for climate-change scenarios. The trees were studied in their typical phytosociological associations on different bedrock formations at two sites with the same climatic conditions. Using the heat-pulse method, sap flow velocity was measured in eight trunks (trees) of each species during a number of periods in 2001, 2002 and 2003. Hourly sap flux was integrated to daily transpiration per tree and up-scaled to transpiration at the forest canopy level. The annual courses of daytime transpiration rate were estimated using fitted functions, and annual totals were calculated. Sap flow velocity was higher in Tabor than in Kermes oak, and it was highest in the youngest xylem, declining with depth into the older xylem. Because stocking density of the Tabor oak forests is strongly related to bedrock characteristics, thinning as a management tool will not change partitioning of the rainfall between different soil pockets, and hence soil water availability to the trees. In contrast, thinning of Kermes oak forests is expected to raise water availability to the remaining trees.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2009

Adapting to Climate Change Towards a European framework for action

This White Paper sets out a framework to reduce the EU’s vulnerability to the impact of climate change. It builds on the wide-rangi ng consultation launched in 2007 by the Green Paper on Adapting to Climate Change in Europe 1 and further research efforts that identified action to be taken in the short- term. The framework is designed to evolve as further evidence becomes available. It will complement action by Member States and support wider international efforts to adapt to climate change, particularly in developing countries. The EU is working with other partner countries in the UNFCCC 2 towards a post-2012 climate agreement which will address adaptation as well as mitigation. The Commission's proposals in this context are set out in the Communicatio n entitled “Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2009

Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) Fifth session of the UNFCCC Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA)

Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) includes a range of local and landscape scale strategies that enable both people and nature to adapt in the face of climate change. An ecosystem-based approach to adaptation is compatible and supportive of a wide range of local and national development objectives, as well as with ongoing adaptation efforts at community level, and with existing priorities identified in many of the most vulnerable countries.
מידע נוסף

מאמרים ופרסומים אחרונים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

Periodic Report Summary 1 - DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice)

The DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice) project proposes a novel framework to evaluate the economic consequences of climate change impacts and related policy responses.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

בחינת תרומת קבוצות סוציו אקונומיות בישראל לפליטות גזי חממה מצריכת מזון ביתי

לייצור המזון, במיוחד בחקלאות התעשייתית, נודעת השפעה ממשית על היקף פליטות גזי חממה באופן ישיר או עקיף. גזי חממה אלו נוצרים בכל שלבי מחזור החיים של המזון, החל משלב החקלאות ותשומותיו, דרך הייצור, הפצה, קירור, קמעונאות, הכנת המזון בבית וכלה בסילוק הפסולת.למעשה, בעוד שבמחקרים השונים קיימת הסכמה על כך שפליטות גזי חממה מייצור המזון וצריכתו מהוות חלק משמעותי מפליטות גזי החממה בעולם, המחלוקת המחקרית נסובה סביב הערכת היקף הפליטות. לדוגמא, לפי דוח של האו"ם מ- 2014 14.5% מפליטות גזי החממה כתוצאה מפעילו
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Explaining Extreme Weather Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective

The annual Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) special issue on the attribution of last year’s extreme weather events is published today. This year’s issue “explaining extreme events of 2013 – from a climate perspective” includes two papers led by researchers from our climateprediction. This is a highly-cited and influential annual publication coined in 2012 asking whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered the risk of major extreme weather events of the p
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Lima call for climate action- Decision

Climate Action & UNEP delivered their fifth annual Sustainable Innovation Forum on December 9 in Lima. This year’s event brought together close to 500 leaders from key United Nations bodies, governments, international & regional companies and leading non-governmental organisations (NGO's).
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

Climate Prediction for Adaptation: Who needs what?

The role of short- and long-term climate predictions in determining the success of adaptation to climate change is investigated. A simple theoretical model that captures the relationship between adaptive performance, decision structure, and prediction accuracy at different temporal scales is developed, and its implications deduced. It is shown that users who face high adjustment costs (i.e. are inflexible) depend more heavily on accurate long-term predictions than those who are able to adjust
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

UK climate change risk assessment: government report

The Government published the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) on 25 January 2012, the first assessment of its kind for the UK and the first in a 5 year cycle. It sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK under 5 key themes identified in the CCRA 2012 Evidence Report - Agriculture and Forestry; Business, industries and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Natural Environment and Buildings and Infrastructure - and describes the policy context, and action already in place to tackle
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

2011 Bonn Declaration of Mayors

This declaration is the outcome document of the Mayors Adaptation Forum, which forms the Mayors segment of the Resilient Cities 2011 congress. It highlights the need to build resilience to disasters as a critical issue. It also signals the need to take appropriate action to build local capacities in reducing risk to disasters including those exacerbated by climate change.
The declaration advocates for the implementation of the following: (i) mainstreaming new adaptation and resilience standard
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

A double-resolution transient RCM climate change

A double-resolution regional experiment on hydrodynamic simulation of climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region was performed using an International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste RegCM3 model. The RegCM3 was driven from the lateral boundaries by the data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate simulation performed at the MPI-M, Hamburg and based on the A1B IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emission. Two simulation runs for the time period 1960-2060, employing spatial resolutions
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Climate Change Adaptation and Real Option Evaluation: A Case Study in Campeche, Mexico

This report illustrates the application of a (relatively) new method to guide decision making under high (and unknowable) levels of uncertainty. The approach allows for the identification of robust policy options that are economically beneficial under different scenarios and varying levels uncertainty. Option value techniques are commonly employed in the finance literature to identify investment decisions that are resilient across a spectrum of outcomes. The methods are technically advanced
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

ipcc summary for policymakers

The Working Group III Special Report on Renewa
ble Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of th
e literature on the scientific, technological,
environmental, economic and social aspects of
the contribution of six renewable energy (RE)
sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is
intended to provide policy relevant information to
governments, intergovernmental processes and ot
her interested parties. This Summary for
Policymakers provides an ov
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2008

Climate change- vulnerability and adaptation indicators

The purpose of this Technical Paper is to rehearse some fundamental concepts surrounding the
development and delineation of adaptation indicators. It builds upon the outputs of an Expert meeting
on climate change vulnerability and adaptation indicators (Budapest, September 2008) and on the
contents of a Background Paper that was prepared for the meeting.
מידע נוסף
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