מאמרים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review

A critical discussion of recent studies that analysed the effects of climate change on the water resources of the River Nile Basin (RNB) is presented. First, current water-related issues on the RNB showing the particular vulnerability to environmental changes of this large territory are described. Second, observed trends in hydrological data (such as temperature, precipitation, river discharge) as described in the recent literature are presented. Third, recent modelling exercises to quantify the effects of climate changes on the RNB are critically analysed. The many sources of uncertainty affecting the entire modelling chain, including climate modelling, spatial and temporal downscaling, hydrological modelling and impact assessment are also discussed. In particular, two contrasting issues are discussed: the need to better recognize and characterize the uncertainty of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the RNB, and the necessity to effectively support decision-makers and propose suitable adaptation strategies and measures. The principles of a code of good practice in climate change impact studies based on the explicit handling of various sources of uncertainty are outlined.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modeling

Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology. The Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world as it is subject to the combined effects of glacier melt, extreme monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. To what extent climate change will impact river flow in the Brahmaputra basin is yet unclear, as climate model studies show ambiguous results. In this study we investigate the effect of climate change on both low and high flows of the lower Brahmaputra. We apply a novel method of discharge-weighted ensemble modeling using model outputs from a global hydrological models forced with 12 different global climate models (GCMs). Our analysis shows that only a limited number of GCMs are required to reconstruct observed discharge. Based on the GCM outputs and long-term records of observed flow at Bahadurabad station, our method results in a multi-model weighted ensemble of transient stream flow for the period 1961-2100. Using the constructed transients, we subsequently project future trends in low and high river flow. The analysis shows that extreme low flow conditions are likely to occur less frequent in the future. However a very strong increase in peak flows is projected, which may, in combination with projected sea level change, have devastating effects for Bangladesh. The methods presented in this study are more widely applicable, in that existing multi-model streamflow simulations from global hydrological models can be weighted against observed streamflow data to assess at first order the effects of climate change for specific river basins.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: a review

A critical discussion of recent studies that analysed the effects of climate change on the water resources of the River Nile Basin (RNB) is presented. First, current water-related issues on the RNB showing the particular vulnerability to environmental changes of this large territory are described. Second, observed trends in hydrological data (such as temperature, precipitation, river discharge) as described in the recent literature are presented. Third, recent modelling exercises to quantify the effects of climate changes on the RNB are critically analysed. The many sources of uncertainty affecting the entire modelling chain, including climate modelling, spatial and temporal downscaling, hydrological modelling and impact assessment are also discussed. In particular, two contrasting issues are discussed: the need to better recognize and characterize the uncertainty of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the RNB, and the necessity to effectively support decision-makers and propose suitable adaptation strategies and measures. The principles of a code of good practice in climate change impact studies based on the explicit handling of various sources of uncertainty are outlined.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2010

Water for an integrative climate paradigm

By the logic of the New Water Paradigm (NWP), it is deforestation, industrial agriculture, and urbanisation that determine climate by draining land, so that more solar energy re-enters the atmosphere as sensible heat, rather than latent heat of evaporation. Human-made 'hot plates' lead to irregular precipitation and other climate destabilisation effects, but these can be mitigated through rainwater conservation and re-vegetation. This integrative paradigm combines the management of climate, water, biodiversity, and land, with implications for agriculture, forestry, engineering, urban design and regional planning.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2010

Climate Change impacts on Jordan River flow: Downscaling application from a Regional Climate Model

The integration of climate change projections into hydrological and other response models used for water resource planning and management is challenging given the varying spatial resolutions of the different models. In general, climate models are generated at spatial ranges of hundreds of kilometers, while hydrological models are generally watershed specific and based on input at the station or local level. This paper focuses on techniques applied to downscale large-scale climate model simulations to the spatial scale required by local response models (hydrological, agricultural, soil). Specifically, results were extracted from a regional climate model (RegCM) simulation focused on the Middle East, which was downscaled to a scale appropriate for input into a local watershed model [the Hydrological Model for Karst Environment (HYMKE)] calibrated for the upper Jordan River catchment. With this application, the authors evaluated the effect of future climate change on the amount and form of precipitation (rain or snow) and its effect on streamflow in the Jordan River and its tributaries—the major water resources in the region. They found that the expected changes in the form of precipitation are nearly insignificant in terms of changing the timing of streamflow. Additionally, the results suggest a future increase in evaporation and decrease in average annual rainfall, supporting expected changes based on global models in this region.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2008

Calculating potential evaporation from climate model data: A source of uncertainty for hydrological climate change impacts

Evaporation is an important part of the water balance of a catchment, and estimates of potential evaporation (PE) are an important input to hydrological models. When modelling the hydrological impacts of climate change, using data from climate models, present models generally do not provide direct estimates of PE from the land surface. Estimates thus have to be calculated from other climate variables, and many existing formulae can be applied. This paper compares the well-established, more physically-based but data-intensive, Penman-Monteith PE against a simple, temperature-based (T-based) PE, when calculated from readily-available monthly climate model data over Britain (for five global and eight regional climate models). The performance of the two PE formulations is compared to MORECS PE (a gridded dataset derived by the UK Met Office from weather observations, using a modified Penman-Monteith formulation) for the baseline period 1961-1990, and the changes in the two PE estimates between the 1970s and the 2080s are compared. The results show that the T-based PE matches MORECS PE better than does Penman-Monteith PE, for all the climate models studied. However, the changes in the two types of PE between the 1970s and 2080s are different, for each of the climate models, and these affect the modelled hydrological impacts. This is illustrated using three example catchments spread across Britain. The uncertainty introduced by the PE formulation is less than that due to the climate model, but could still be important for some applications.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2003

Late Holocene climates of the Near East deduced from Dead Sea level variations and modern regional winter rainfall

The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest hydrological systems in the Levant and may thus be viewed as a large rain gauge for the region. Variations of its level are indicative of the climate variations in the region. Here, we present the decadal- to centennial-resolution Holocene lake-level curve of the Dead Sea. Then we determine the regional hydroclimatology that affected level variations. To achieve this goal we compare modern natural lake-level variations and instrumental rainfall records and quantify the hydrology relative to lake-level rise, fall, or stability. To quantify that relationship under natural conditions, rainfall data pre-dating the artificial Dead Sea level drop since the 1960s are used. In this respect, Jerusalem station offers the longest uninterrupted pre-1960s rainfall record and Jerusalem rains serve as an adequate proxy for the Dead Sea headwaters rainfall. Principal component analysis indicates that temporal variations of annual precipitation in all stations in Israel north of the current 200 mm yr−1 average isohyet during 1940–1990 are largely synchronous and in phase (∼70% of the total variance explained by PC1). This station also represents well northern Jordan and the area all the way to Beirut, Lebanon, especially during extreme drought and wet spells. We (a) determine the modern, and propose the past regional hydrology and Eastern Mediterranean (EM) climatology that affected the severity and length of droughts/wet spells associated with multiyear episodes of Dead Sea level falls/rises and (b) determine that EM cyclone tracks were different in average number and latitude in wet and dry years in Jerusalem. The mean composite sea level pressure and 500-mb height anomalies indicate that the potential causes for wet and dry episodes span the entire EM and are rooted in the larger-scale northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation. We also identified remarkably close association (within radiocarbon resolution) between climatic changes in the Levant, reflected by level changes, and culture shifts in this region.
מידע נוסף

מאמרים ופרסומים אחרונים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Socioeconomic and data challenges: Disaster risk reduction in Europe - UNDRR - 2019

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) involves complex processes with different stakeholders at all administrative levels. Two elements in particular play a major role: the need to ensure stakeholders' interoperability through an efficient exchange of data, and the inclusion of socioeconomic factors which may influence DRR processes. This report aims at contributing to increase the global knowledge on these two elements, focusing on the related issues affecting DRR throughout the European continent.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

IPCC 2019 - Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

The 2019 Refinement to the 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories was adopted and accepted during the 49th Session of the IPCC in May 2019. It was prepared by the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI) in accordance with the decision taken at the 44th Session of IPCC in Bangkok, Thailand, in October 2016
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

Climate Change and Land - Special Report - IPCC

An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

GAR 2019 - Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction - UNDRR

The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) is informed by the latest data – including Sendai Framework target reporting by countries using the Sendai Framework Monitor – and infers early lessons on the state of the global disaster risk landscape. While the observed period is still too short to reach definitive conclusions at a global scale, it is possible to ascertain certain patterns in terms of magnitude, geographic and socioeconomic distribution of impacts and abstract
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2019

WMO Statement on the state of the global climate in 2018

This publication marks the twenty-fifth anniversary of the WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate, which was first issued in 1994. The 2019 edition treating data for 2018 marks sustained international efforts dedicated to reporting on, analysing and understanding the year-to-year variations and long-term trends of a changing climate
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2018

Global Warming of 1.5 ºC - Special Report - IPCC

An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

Periodic Report Summary 1 - DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice)

The DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice) project proposes a novel framework to evaluate the economic consequences of climate change impacts and related policy responses.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

בחינת תרומת קבוצות סוציו אקונומיות בישראל לפליטות גזי חממה מצריכת מזון ביתי

לייצור המזון, במיוחד בחקלאות התעשייתית, נודעת השפעה ממשית על היקף פליטות גזי חממה באופן ישיר או עקיף. גזי חממה אלו נוצרים בכל שלבי מחזור החיים של המזון, החל משלב החקלאות ותשומותיו, דרך הייצור, הפצה, קירור, קמעונאות, הכנת המזון בבית וכלה בסילוק הפסולת.למעשה, בעוד שבמחקרים השונים קיימת הסכמה על כך שפליטות גזי חממה מייצור המזון וצריכתו מהוות חלק משמעותי מפליטות גזי החממה בעולם, המחלוקת המחקרית נסובה סביב הערכת היקף הפליטות. לדוגמא, לפי דוח של האו"ם מ- 2014 14.5% מפליטות גזי החממה כתוצאה מפעילו
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Explaining Extreme Weather Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective

The annual Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) special issue on the attribution of last year’s extreme weather events is published today. This year’s issue “explaining extreme events of 2013 – from a climate perspective” includes two papers led by researchers from our climateprediction. This is a highly-cited and influential annual publication coined in 2012 asking whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered the risk of major extreme weather events of the p
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Lima call for climate action- Decision

Climate Action & UNEP delivered their fifth annual Sustainable Innovation Forum on December 9 in Lima. This year’s event brought together close to 500 leaders from key United Nations bodies, governments, international & regional companies and leading non-governmental organisations (NGO's).
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

Climate Prediction for Adaptation: Who needs what?

The role of short- and long-term climate predictions in determining the success of adaptation to climate change is investigated. A simple theoretical model that captures the relationship between adaptive performance, decision structure, and prediction accuracy at different temporal scales is developed, and its implications deduced. It is shown that users who face high adjustment costs (i.e. are inflexible) depend more heavily on accurate long-term predictions than those who are able to adjust
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

UK climate change risk assessment: government report

The Government published the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) on 25 January 2012, the first assessment of its kind for the UK and the first in a 5 year cycle. It sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK under 5 key themes identified in the CCRA 2012 Evidence Report - Agriculture and Forestry; Business, industries and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Natural Environment and Buildings and Infrastructure - and describes the policy context, and action already in place to tackle
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

2011 Bonn Declaration of Mayors

This declaration is the outcome document of the Mayors Adaptation Forum, which forms the Mayors segment of the Resilient Cities 2011 congress. It highlights the need to build resilience to disasters as a critical issue. It also signals the need to take appropriate action to build local capacities in reducing risk to disasters including those exacerbated by climate change.
The declaration advocates for the implementation of the following: (i) mainstreaming new adaptation and resilience standard
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

A double-resolution transient RCM climate change

A double-resolution regional experiment on hydrodynamic simulation of climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region was performed using an International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste RegCM3 model. The RegCM3 was driven from the lateral boundaries by the data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate simulation performed at the MPI-M, Hamburg and based on the A1B IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emission. Two simulation runs for the time period 1960-2060, employing spatial resolutions
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Climate Change Adaptation and Real Option Evaluation: A Case Study in Campeche, Mexico

This report illustrates the application of a (relatively) new method to guide decision making under high (and unknowable) levels of uncertainty. The approach allows for the identification of robust policy options that are economically beneficial under different scenarios and varying levels uncertainty. Option value techniques are commonly employed in the finance literature to identify investment decisions that are resilient across a spectrum of outcomes. The methods are technically advanced
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

ipcc summary for policymakers

The Working Group III Special Report on Renewa
ble Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of th
e literature on the scientific, technological,
environmental, economic and social aspects of
the contribution of six renewable energy (RE)
sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is
intended to provide policy relevant information to
governments, intergovernmental processes and ot
her interested parties. This Summary for
Policymakers provides an ov
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2008

Climate change- vulnerability and adaptation indicators

The purpose of this Technical Paper is to rehearse some fundamental concepts surrounding the
development and delineation of adaptation indicators. It builds upon the outputs of an Expert meeting
on climate change vulnerability and adaptation indicators (Budapest, September 2008) and on the
contents of a Background Paper that was prepared for the meeting.
מידע נוסף
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