מאמרים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems-and the goods and services they provide-for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario-consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C-is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

Adapting to climate change: 2013 strategy for exercising the adaptation reporting power

he adaptation reporting power under the Climate Change Act 2008 aims to ensure that climate change risk management is systematically undertaken by reporting authorities. This aims to help ensure that public service and infrastructure are resilient to climate change, and to monitor the level of preparedness of key sectors to climate change.

The 2013 strategy for the adaptation reporting power has been developed after discussions with stakeholders and consideration of consultation responses. Th
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided

This report, produced for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, attempts to describe what climate change impacts are likely to be felt in a ‘4°C world', i.e. a world where global average temperatures have risen four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. In doing so, it hopes to motivate actors and insert urgency into climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

The Challenge of Climate Change Adaptation: Learning from National Planning Efforts in Britain, China, and the United States

This paper surveys projected climate impacts and national planning efforts in three major countries. The three countries are in varying stages of planning for climate adaptation. Planning frameworks in all three countries suffer from a lack of specificity and urgency. To address this situation, the paper recommends the use of scenario planning, including consideration of high-impact scenarios, to address the downside risks of climate change, and identifying and prioritizing impacts on vulnerable populations such as the elderly, the poor, and coastal communities.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

The basic economics of low-carbon growth in the UK

report states: “The UK has committed to a transition towards a low-carbon economy. This transition could not only contribute to the management of the immense risks posed by climate change, it could also be, with good policy, intensely creative and full of opportunity. This policy must be founded on sound economics, which embodies robust and dynamic analysis of the costs, benefits and risks associated with both low-carbon growth and the alternatives.”It points out: “The Government has committed to making the transition to low-carbon economic growth. It must continue to show clear decision-making on a range of policy issues, as it has done by following the advice of the Committee on Climate Change on the UK’s fourth carbon budget, in line with the long-term objective of making the transition to a low-carbon economy.”But the report warns: “Significant investment is required in UK energy infrastructure over the next ten years. Failing to show clarity and confidence now, for instance by being shaky, or appearing shaky, on carbon budget commitments, will damage private sector investment in low-carbon technologies and the prospects for growth, and thus, for employment. Weak or confused government policy, ignoring the multiple market failures in this key area, undermines markets and entrepreneurship, and the ability of the UK to embrace the real growth story of the future.”The report also notes that the investment in low-carbon technologies can drive the UK’s economic recovery, particularly if Government policies can unlock the current record level of private sector savings. But it stresses: “There must be tough and serious economic analysis of the management of the transition to the low-carbon economy. There will be costs and difficult decisions. Cost are not saved and investment is not promoted by procrastination or by capture by narrow interests.”
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Reducing the risks posed by natural hazards and climate change: the need for a participatory dialogue between the scientific community and policy makers

In the last two decades we witnessed a progressive shift in the approach towards the reduction of the impact of natural hazards. From a general reactive approach, focusing on strengthening disaster response mechanisms, we have moved to proactive approaches. There has been recognition that each element of society, from public institutions to private sector, from community-based organizations to every single individual, can make a difference by acting before disasters strike to reduce the associated risks of human and economic losses. This proactive approach can be summarized in three words: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). This paper, which serves as an introduction to the special issue of Environment Science & Policy on climate change impact on water-related disasters, intends to provide readers with an overview of the main policy frameworks addressing DRR internationally and in Europe. Further, it aims to offer some “food for thought” on the underlying opportunities we have to enhance the resilience of our communities towards the risks posed by weather-related hazards. It stresses the importance of governance of risks, which starts from an effective dialogue between the scientific community and the policy makers: those who have the responsibility to decide on the most cost-effective interventions to address climate change adaptation and risk reduction.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Future impacts of climate change across Europe

This CEPS Working Document reviews the potential impacts of climate change on 11 key indicator categories and 3 large regions covering the entire European Union. Although there remains a considerable degree of uncertainty about local and regional effects, the paper highlights strong distributional patterns. Northern Europe might even experience some positive effects, while the Mediterranean will mostly be negatively affected. Still, the cumulative impacts of climate change on poorer countries will also affect northern European countries, as growing water scarcity and other repercussions in Mediterranean countries could pose social and security challenges through increasing risks of conflicts and migration pressures.The impacts outlined in this paper are a useful starting point for policy-makers when shaping effective adaptation policies for Europe. They underline the need for a European response in the spirit of solidarity, while stressing that the fight against climate change is clearly in the self-interest of the EU and all of its member states.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2007

Stern Review: the Economics of Climate Change

The Stern Review, released on October 30, 2006, provides the most thorough and rigorous analysis to date of the costs and risks of climate change and reducing emissions and convincingly argues that the benefits of strong, early global action to mitigate climate change will be far lower than the costs.
מידע נוסף

מאמרים ופרסומים אחרונים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

Periodic Report Summary 1 - DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice)

The DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice) project proposes a novel framework to evaluate the economic consequences of climate change impacts and related policy responses.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

בחינת תרומת קבוצות סוציו אקונומיות בישראל לפליטות גזי חממה מצריכת מזון ביתי

לייצור המזון, במיוחד בחקלאות התעשייתית, נודעת השפעה ממשית על היקף פליטות גזי חממה באופן ישיר או עקיף. גזי חממה אלו נוצרים בכל שלבי מחזור החיים של המזון, החל משלב החקלאות ותשומותיו, דרך הייצור, הפצה, קירור, קמעונאות, הכנת המזון בבית וכלה בסילוק הפסולת.למעשה, בעוד שבמחקרים השונים קיימת הסכמה על כך שפליטות גזי חממה מייצור המזון וצריכתו מהוות חלק משמעותי מפליטות גזי החממה בעולם, המחלוקת המחקרית נסובה סביב הערכת היקף הפליטות. לדוגמא, לפי דוח של האו"ם מ- 2014 14.5% מפליטות גזי החממה כתוצאה מפעילו
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Explaining Extreme Weather Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective

The annual Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) special issue on the attribution of last year’s extreme weather events is published today. This year’s issue “explaining extreme events of 2013 – from a climate perspective” includes two papers led by researchers from our climateprediction. This is a highly-cited and influential annual publication coined in 2012 asking whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered the risk of major extreme weather events of the p
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Lima call for climate action- Decision

Climate Action & UNEP delivered their fifth annual Sustainable Innovation Forum on December 9 in Lima. This year’s event brought together close to 500 leaders from key United Nations bodies, governments, international & regional companies and leading non-governmental organisations (NGO's).
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

Climate Prediction for Adaptation: Who needs what?

The role of short- and long-term climate predictions in determining the success of adaptation to climate change is investigated. A simple theoretical model that captures the relationship between adaptive performance, decision structure, and prediction accuracy at different temporal scales is developed, and its implications deduced. It is shown that users who face high adjustment costs (i.e. are inflexible) depend more heavily on accurate long-term predictions than those who are able to adjust
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

UK climate change risk assessment: government report

The Government published the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) on 25 January 2012, the first assessment of its kind for the UK and the first in a 5 year cycle. It sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK under 5 key themes identified in the CCRA 2012 Evidence Report - Agriculture and Forestry; Business, industries and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Natural Environment and Buildings and Infrastructure - and describes the policy context, and action already in place to tackle
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

2011 Bonn Declaration of Mayors

This declaration is the outcome document of the Mayors Adaptation Forum, which forms the Mayors segment of the Resilient Cities 2011 congress. It highlights the need to build resilience to disasters as a critical issue. It also signals the need to take appropriate action to build local capacities in reducing risk to disasters including those exacerbated by climate change.
The declaration advocates for the implementation of the following: (i) mainstreaming new adaptation and resilience standard
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

A double-resolution transient RCM climate change

A double-resolution regional experiment on hydrodynamic simulation of climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region was performed using an International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste RegCM3 model. The RegCM3 was driven from the lateral boundaries by the data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate simulation performed at the MPI-M, Hamburg and based on the A1B IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emission. Two simulation runs for the time period 1960-2060, employing spatial resolutions
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Climate Change Adaptation and Real Option Evaluation: A Case Study in Campeche, Mexico

This report illustrates the application of a (relatively) new method to guide decision making under high (and unknowable) levels of uncertainty. The approach allows for the identification of robust policy options that are economically beneficial under different scenarios and varying levels uncertainty. Option value techniques are commonly employed in the finance literature to identify investment decisions that are resilient across a spectrum of outcomes. The methods are technically advanced
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

ipcc summary for policymakers

The Working Group III Special Report on Renewa
ble Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of th
e literature on the scientific, technological,
environmental, economic and social aspects of
the contribution of six renewable energy (RE)
sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is
intended to provide policy relevant information to
governments, intergovernmental processes and ot
her interested parties. This Summary for
Policymakers provides an ov
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2008

Climate change- vulnerability and adaptation indicators

The purpose of this Technical Paper is to rehearse some fundamental concepts surrounding the
development and delineation of adaptation indicators. It builds upon the outputs of an Expert meeting
on climate change vulnerability and adaptation indicators (Budapest, September 2008) and on the
contents of a Background Paper that was prepared for the meeting.
מידע נוסף
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