מאמרים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

Climate change impacts on international seaports: knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators

Seaports are located in vulnerable areas to climate change impacts: on coasts susceptible to sea-level rise and storms or at mouths of rivers susceptible to flooding. They serve a vital function within the local, regional, and global economy. Their locations in the heart of sensitive estuarine environments make it an imperative to minimize the impacts of natural hazards. Climate impacts, like a projected SLR of .6 m to 2 m and doubling of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes by 2100, will result in more extreme events at many seaports. To assess the current state of knowledge on this issue, we surveyed port authorities from around the world about how administrators felt climate change might impact their operations, what sea-level change would create operational problems, and how they planned to adapt to new environmental conditions. The planned rapid expansion of ports reported by the survey respondents indicates that adaptation measures should be considered as ports construct new infrastructure that may still be in use at the end of the century. Respondents agreed that the ports community needs to address this issue and most felt relatively uninformed about potential climate impacts. Although most ports felt that SLR would not be an issue at their port this century, sea-level rise was nevertheless an issue of great concern. Our results suggest opportunities for the scientific community to engage with port practitioners to prepare proactively for climate change impacts on this sector.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modeling

Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology. The Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world as it is subject to the combined effects of glacier melt, extreme monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. To what extent climate change will impact river flow in the Brahmaputra basin is yet unclear, as climate model studies show ambiguous results. In this study we investigate the effect of climate change on both low and high flows of the lower Brahmaputra. We apply a novel method of discharge-weighted ensemble modeling using model outputs from a global hydrological models forced with 12 different global climate models (GCMs). Our analysis shows that only a limited number of GCMs are required to reconstruct observed discharge. Based on the GCM outputs and long-term records of observed flow at Bahadurabad station, our method results in a multi-model weighted ensemble of transient stream flow for the period 1961-2100. Using the constructed transients, we subsequently project future trends in low and high river flow. The analysis shows that extreme low flow conditions are likely to occur less frequent in the future. However a very strong increase in peak flows is projected, which may, in combination with projected sea level change, have devastating effects for Bangladesh. The methods presented in this study are more widely applicable, in that existing multi-model streamflow simulations from global hydrological models can be weighted against observed streamflow data to assess at first order the effects of climate change for specific river basins.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming

Since the publication of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, the securitization of global warming has reached a new level. Numerous public statements and a growing research literature have discussed the potential security risks and conflicts associated with climate change. This article provides an overview of this debate and introduces an assessment framework of climate stress, human security and societal impacts. Key fields of conflict will be
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2010

The Nile Delta’s Sinking Future. Climate change and damming the Nile threaten Egypt’s agricultural Oasis

As Egypt celebrates the 50th anniversary of the start of the construction of the Aswan High Dam, some scientists say that this wonder of engineering is contributing to an environmental catastrophe that could force millions of its citizens to abandon the lush, fertile delta. The worst of these is coastal erosion and subsidence, the compacting of the delta soil. For millennia, the untamed Nile compensated for these natural processes by delivering fresh sediments along with its fresh water. The dam
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2010

Climate change and its impacts on the coastal zone of the Nile Delta, Egypt

The main objectives of the current work are (1) to determine historic pattern of shoreline changes (erosion and accretion) along the north coast of the Nile Delta, (2) to present a future view on what to be expected regarding climate change impacts, sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, expected land losses and alteration of some soil characteristics (3) to recognize negative impacts of SLR on the Nile Delta coast and (4) to assess and suggest protection measures. The current investigation was conducted using the advanced techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system. The investigated area with 394 measured locations is located along the northern coast of the Nile Delta between Alexandria and ElTina plain in Sinai peninsula exactly between 29°20′ and 32°40′ E and 29°54′ and 31°35′ N with the minimum erosion values of 1.11 m2, maximum of 6,044,951.64 m2 and total of 16.02 km2. On the other hand, 177 sites showed minimum accretion values of 0.05 m2, maximum of 2,876,855.86 m2 and total of 13.19 km2. SLR was determined by applying the quadrant equation for 10-year intervals using 1990 as the base year. Mediterranean SLR along the Nile Delta coast could be estimated considering three different scenarios (low 0.20 m, medium 0.50 m, and high 0.90 m). Impacts of SLR are divided into (1) primary and (2) secondary impacts. Over the coming decades, the Nile Delta will face greater threat due to SLR and land subsidence as well. Regarding climate change and its impacts on soil characteristics, rapid increase in salinity values during the former three decades were found. This increase may be due to the intrusion of salty water of the Mediterranean. On the other hand, organic matter content decreased due to higher temperature, especially during the summer season. Some protection measures were assessed and suggested to combat or tackle SLR.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2010

The Nile Delta’s Sinking Future. Climate change and damming the Nile threaten Egypt’s agricultural Oasis

As Egypt celebrates the 50th anniversary of the start of the construction of the Aswan High Dam, some scientists say that this wonder of engineering is contributing to an environmental catastrophe that could force millions of its citizens to abandon the lush, fertile delta. The worst of these is coastal erosion and subsidence, the compacting of the delta soil. For millennia, the untamed Nile compensated for these natural processes by delivering fresh sediments along with its fresh water. The dam, however, now blocks the sediments far upstream of Cairo. As a result, the delta is sinking. At the same time, the Mediterranean Sea is expected to rise as a result of global warming. Deciding on a course of action is easier said than done, however, because the rates at which the sea is rising and the delta is sinking are subjects of fierce debate. As a first, cautious step, Egypt and the United Nations are this year launching a 5-year study of the options for protecting the delta from the encroaching sea. But as Egyptian scientists rush to provide those data, the government is steaming ahead with a series of "megaprojects" to boost the country's habitable area. In the most ambitious of these, the largest pump in the world is diverting 10% of the Nile into an uninhabited region of the desert to create a new delta.
מידע נוסף

מאמרים ופרסומים אחרונים

מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

Periodic Report Summary 1 - DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice)

The DYNAMIC (DYNamic feedbacks of climate impacts on current Adaptation and Mitigation Investment Choice) project proposes a novel framework to evaluate the economic consequences of climate change impacts and related policy responses.
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2015

בחינת תרומת קבוצות סוציו אקונומיות בישראל לפליטות גזי חממה מצריכת מזון ביתי

לייצור המזון, במיוחד בחקלאות התעשייתית, נודעת השפעה ממשית על היקף פליטות גזי חממה באופן ישיר או עקיף. גזי חממה אלו נוצרים בכל שלבי מחזור החיים של המזון, החל משלב החקלאות ותשומותיו, דרך הייצור, הפצה, קירור, קמעונאות, הכנת המזון בבית וכלה בסילוק הפסולת.למעשה, בעוד שבמחקרים השונים קיימת הסכמה על כך שפליטות גזי חממה מייצור המזון וצריכתו מהוות חלק משמעותי מפליטות גזי החממה בעולם, המחלוקת המחקרית נסובה סביב הערכת היקף הפליטות. לדוגמא, לפי דוח של האו"ם מ- 2014 14.5% מפליטות גזי החממה כתוצאה מפעילו
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Explaining Extreme Weather Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective

The annual Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) special issue on the attribution of last year’s extreme weather events is published today. This year’s issue “explaining extreme events of 2013 – from a climate perspective” includes two papers led by researchers from our climateprediction. This is a highly-cited and influential annual publication coined in 2012 asking whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered the risk of major extreme weather events of the p
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2014

Lima call for climate action- Decision

Climate Action & UNEP delivered their fifth annual Sustainable Innovation Forum on December 9 in Lima. This year’s event brought together close to 500 leaders from key United Nations bodies, governments, international & regional companies and leading non-governmental organisations (NGO's).
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

Climate Prediction for Adaptation: Who needs what?

The role of short- and long-term climate predictions in determining the success of adaptation to climate change is investigated. A simple theoretical model that captures the relationship between adaptive performance, decision structure, and prediction accuracy at different temporal scales is developed, and its implications deduced. It is shown that users who face high adjustment costs (i.e. are inflexible) depend more heavily on accurate long-term predictions than those who are able to adjust
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2012

UK climate change risk assessment: government report

The Government published the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) on 25 January 2012, the first assessment of its kind for the UK and the first in a 5 year cycle. It sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK under 5 key themes identified in the CCRA 2012 Evidence Report - Agriculture and Forestry; Business, industries and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Natural Environment and Buildings and Infrastructure - and describes the policy context, and action already in place to tackle
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

2011 Bonn Declaration of Mayors

This declaration is the outcome document of the Mayors Adaptation Forum, which forms the Mayors segment of the Resilient Cities 2011 congress. It highlights the need to build resilience to disasters as a critical issue. It also signals the need to take appropriate action to build local capacities in reducing risk to disasters including those exacerbated by climate change.
The declaration advocates for the implementation of the following: (i) mainstreaming new adaptation and resilience standard
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

A double-resolution transient RCM climate change

A double-resolution regional experiment on hydrodynamic simulation of climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region was performed using an International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste RegCM3 model. The RegCM3 was driven from the lateral boundaries by the data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate simulation performed at the MPI-M, Hamburg and based on the A1B IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emission. Two simulation runs for the time period 1960-2060, employing spatial resolutions
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

Climate Change Adaptation and Real Option Evaluation: A Case Study in Campeche, Mexico

This report illustrates the application of a (relatively) new method to guide decision making under high (and unknowable) levels of uncertainty. The approach allows for the identification of robust policy options that are economically beneficial under different scenarios and varying levels uncertainty. Option value techniques are commonly employed in the finance literature to identify investment decisions that are resilient across a spectrum of outcomes. The methods are technically advanced
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2011

ipcc summary for policymakers

The Working Group III Special Report on Renewa
ble Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of th
e literature on the scientific, technological,
environmental, economic and social aspects of
the contribution of six renewable energy (RE)
sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is
intended to provide policy relevant information to
governments, intergovernmental processes and ot
her interested parties. This Summary for
Policymakers provides an ov
מידע נוסף
מרכז הידע הישראלי להערכות לשינויי אקלים
2008

Climate change- vulnerability and adaptation indicators

The purpose of this Technical Paper is to rehearse some fundamental concepts surrounding the
development and delineation of adaptation indicators. It builds upon the outputs of an Expert meeting
on climate change vulnerability and adaptation indicators (Budapest, September 2008) and on the
contents of a Background Paper that was prepared for the meeting.
מידע נוסף
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